IN Brief:
- US flour production reached 102.547m cwts in January–March 2026.
- Output fell 2.7% year on year and 1.5% from the previous quarter.
- First-quarter production was the lowest since 2011, with capacity utilisation at 84.7%.
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service has reported a further decline in US flour production, extending the sector’s year-on-year contraction to a fifth consecutive quarter.
Flour production in January–March 2026 totalled 102.547m cwts, down 2.830m cwts, or 2.7%, from 105.377m cwts in the first quarter of 2025. Output was also down 1.524m cwts, or 1.5%, from 104.071m cwts in the final quarter of 2025.
The first-quarter total was the lowest for the period in 15 years, since production reached 100.024m cwts in January–March 2011. The strongest first-quarter output in the intervening years was 108.177m cwts in 2020, followed by 105.612m cwts in 2018.
US flour mills operated at 84.7% of six-day milling capacity during the quarter. That was down from 86.6% a year earlier, though slightly above the 84.3% recorded in the final quarter of 2025. Capacity utilisation was the weakest first-quarter level since 2019.
Wheat grind in the quarter reached 222.403m bushels, down 4.224m bushels, or 1.9%, from the same period a year earlier. Millfeed production was 1.575m tons, down 22,389 tons, or 1.4%. Daily flour milling capacity was 1.592m cwts, down 0.5% year on year and lower than in the previous quarter.
Within individual flour types, semolina production fell 3.5% to 7.943m cwts, while rye flour production rose 11% to 168,000 cwts. Whole wheat flour production fell sharply, down 13% to 3.911m cwts.
The figures point to a subdued start to the year for the US milling sector, with weaker output, lower wheat grind, and reduced utilisation across an industry that supplies bakery, cereal, pasta, snack, foodservice, and industrial ingredient markets.
The production decline does not automatically indicate a supply shortage. It does, however, show softer demand or tighter inventory management across flour-consuming sectors. Flour output is closely tied to bakery throughput, foodservice pull, retail bakery volumes, and downstream demand for grain-based products.
The whole wheat decline is especially sharp. A 13% fall cuts across health-led bakery, bread, and cereal positioning at a time when higher-fibre and wholegrain claims remain prominent in product development.
Lower mill utilisation also affects cost absorption. Mills operating below stronger capacity levels have fewer tonnes over which to spread fixed costs while still carrying labour, energy, maintenance, grain procurement, and transport costs. That can influence pricing behaviour and commercial pressure in flour supply agreements.
The broader grain-based foods sector remains exposed to mixed demand. Consumers continue to buy staples, but branded bakery, snacks, cereals, and foodservice bakery are still affected by price sensitivity. Manufacturers have spent recent years managing wheat volatility, energy costs, labour availability, and packaging inflation; softer flour production adds another pressure point.
The fifth consecutive quarterly year-on-year decline confirms that flour demand has not returned to sustained growth. Milling and bakery supply chains will remain focused on utilisation, margin control, and closer alignment between production schedules and actual demand.
