IN Brief:
- AHDB has revised UK cereal supply and demand estimates for the 2025/26 season.
- Feed demand has increased, while human and industrial cereal use remains below 2024/25 levels.
- Tighter wheat, barley, and oat stocks could affect milling, bakery, brewing, distilling, feed, and ingredient costs.
AHDB has revised its UK cereal supply and demand estimates for 2025/26, with stronger animal feed demand, lower year-on-year human and industrial demand, and tighter end-season stocks for key grains.
Total cereals demand for animal feed is now estimated at 13.453Mt, up 149Kt from the March estimate and 1% higher than 2024/25. Higher consumption by GB integrated poultry units, GB cattle compounders, and Northern Ireland compounders has contributed to the increase, alongside revised estimates for grain fed on farm.
Demand from human and industrial sectors is estimated at 9.182Mt, 184Kt higher than the March estimate but 12% lower than 2024/25. The restart of bioethanol production at Ensus in April has increased wheat and maize demand for human and industrial use during the current crop year.
Wheat availability is estimated at 16.188Mt, slightly above the March estimate but lower than last season. Imports are forecast at 2.250Mt, 50Kt higher than the previous estimate but 818Kt lower than 2024/25. UK wheat imports from July 2025 to March 2026 stood at 1.867Mt, down 536Kt on the same point in the previous season.
Human and industrial wheat demand is estimated at 6.640Mt, up 159Kt from March but 466Kt below 2024/25. Wheat used in animal feed is estimated at 7.151Mt, up 136Kt from March and 309Kt higher year on year. Commercial end-season wheat stocks have been revised to 1.919Mt, with 1.500Mt required as operating stock.
The figures reach well beyond the farm sector. Flour millers, bakery manufacturers, breakfast cereal producers, brewers, maltsters, distillers, animal feed businesses, starch users, and bioethanol operators all sit inside the same cereal balance. When one demand stream changes, availability and price signals shift across several manufacturing categories.
Pressure in grain-based food manufacturing is already visible outside the UK. US flour output falls for fifth quarter showed how demand shifts and cost sensitivity continue to affect milling and bakery-linked supply chains. The UK market has its own structure, but the underlying exposure to crop quality, demand, and input costs is familiar.
Barley remains central for brewing, malting, and distilling. AHDB estimates total barley availability at 7.835Mt, 20Kt lower than its previous forecast and 651Kt below 2024/25. Human and industrial barley usage is estimated at 1.456Mt, slightly below the previous estimate and 341Kt down year on year.
Lower brewing, malting, and distilling demand changes the balance for barley, but it also points to weaker industrial pull from sectors that normally support crop value. At the same time, barley has remained important in compound rations, keeping feed demand relatively firm. That split leaves the market dependent on how feed use, exports, and processor demand develop through the end of the season.
Maize and oats add further movement. Maize availability is estimated at 2.386Mt, up from the previous estimate but 918Kt lower than 2024/25, while human and industrial maize use remains sharply lower year on year despite the Ensus restart. Oat availability is estimated at 1.119Mt, with human and industrial use supported by demand for oat products, including export demand, and lower milling conversion rates from the 2025 crop.
For manufacturers, the revised estimates reinforce the need to watch cereal balances as part of ingredient planning rather than background agricultural data. Milling yields, import flows, feed competition, bioethanol demand, crop quality, and regional availability all feed into procurement decisions. The current balance does not point to a single dramatic shortage, but it does leave less slack in markets already exposed to energy, freight, and geopolitical cost pressure.
