IN Brief:
- UPM Specialty Materials and Smithers forecast a larger role for fibre-based food packaging by 2045.
- Survey respondents expect fibre’s share of global food packaging to rise from 37% to 42%.
- Barrier performance, machinery compatibility, and recycling systems will determine where fibre formats can scale.
UPM Specialty Materials and Smithers have published work pointing to a larger role for fibre-based food packaging by 2045, with barrier coatings, regulation, recycling infrastructure, and consumer expectations expected to reshape material selection.
The study draws on views from more than 230 packaging professionals across the food packaging value chain. Respondents expect fibre-based packaging to increase its share of the global food packaging market from 37% today to 42% by 2045, while recycling rates are forecast to climb from 31% in 2030 to 37% by 2045.
Paper and board formats already have strong momentum because they are familiar to consumers, linked to renewable feedstocks, and supported by established recycling systems in many markets. The more difficult question is whether fibre-based structures can deliver the performance required across a broader range of food products without adding coatings or laminates that undermine recovery.
Food packaging has never been a simple material choice. It has to protect shelf life, support food safety, run efficiently on packaging lines, survive distribution, present the product, meet retailer requirements, and manage cost. Sustainability regulation adds another layer by forcing evidence around recyclability, recycled content, material restrictions, and end-of-life pathways.
Several recent developments show how the fibre transition is moving from substitution to engineering. Fibre-based closures and dispensing systems are expanding through new functional packaging formats, while paper flowpack conversion is being tested against high-speed packing realities. The UPM-Smithers work sits above those practical developments, mapping the long-term direction of the market.
Fibre growth will not be uniform. Dry foods, bakery, confectionery, cereals, tea, coffee, snacks, powders, and some fresh produce applications offer clearer routes than high-moisture, high-fat, frozen, chilled, retort, or oxygen-sensitive products. Even within dry categories, requirements differ sharply. A biscuit pack, a coffee pouch, a powdered supplement sachet, and a greasy snack wrapper all demand different barrier and machinery performance.
Barrier technology is therefore central to the forecast. Fibre substrates often need coatings, dispersion layers, sealants, or hybrid structures before they can protect food at the required level. The challenge is to deliver moisture, oxygen, grease, aroma, and seal performance while keeping the structure compatible with paper recycling. A pack that looks fibre-based but cannot be recycled in practice will face increasing scrutiny under retailer and regulatory systems.
Machinery performance will decide how quickly adoption moves. Paper can behave differently from plastic film under tension, heat sealing, folding, cutting, coding, forming, and case packing. It may tear, crack, curl, absorb moisture, or require slower line speeds. Food manufacturers cannot adopt a material at scale if it increases rejects, damages product, or creates unstable production windows.
The economics also require care. Rising demand for fibre packaging will increase dependence on pulp, paper, coatings, converting capacity, and energy-intensive production. If fibre formats expand quickly, manufacturers may face qualification bottlenecks, supply pressure, and regional variation in material availability. Second sourcing and packaging specification control will become more important as more product lines move into paper-based structures.
Plastic will retain a major role where functional requirements are too demanding for fibre. Lightweight films, high-barrier laminates, resealable structures, transparent trays, and moisture-resistant formats are not easily replaced in every category. The more likely outcome is sharper material segmentation. Fibre-based packaging will grow where it offers credible protection and recovery advantages, while plastics will remain where their performance prevents food waste or supports safe distribution.
The forecast makes clear that food packaging’s material transition will be governed by proof rather than preference. Fibre has strong momentum, but the successful formats will be those that protect the product, run at industrial speed, satisfy regulation, and move through real recycling systems. The next phase will reward packaging teams that treat material selection as an engineering discipline, not a branding exercise.
