IN Brief:
- AHDB's Milk Forecasting Forum met on 6 October to assess GB milk output risks for 2026/27.
- Herd contraction, forage stocks, bluetongue and input costs were among the concerns considered.
- AHDB expects a revised forecast later in October, following its June estimate of 12.91 billion litres.
AHDB has identified further constraints on British milk output after its Milk Forecasting Forum assessed herd contraction, winter forage availability, bluetongue and agricultural input costs on 6 October 2026. The findings will inform a revised forecast expected later in the month. The forum did not itself announce a new production volume. AHDB’s June estimate of approximately 12.91 billion litres for the 2026/27 milk year, representing a decline of 0.9%, remains the published benchmark until the next formal update is released.
The forum linked livestock numbers and feed availability with farmers’ economic decisions, including whether to retain animals or sell them as beef prices remain high. The availability of replacement heifers is important because a smaller breeding population can restrict the number of cows entering production in later periods. Elevated beef values can change the economics of keeping older animals or retaining youngstock. These decisions affect potential milk output over a longer timescale than the immediate weather-related changes in yields seen during the summer.
Those choices sit alongside a documented contraction in the dairy herd, while hot and dry conditions have also weakened recent milk deliveries. August deliveries averaged approximately 32 million litres per day and totalled about 992 million litres, a fall of 4.5% from the equivalent month of 2025. Weather conditions affected animal performance and grass growth. The resulting pressure on current output can persist into the winter when farms have less conserved forage available to support feeding during housing periods.
Reduced forage quantity or quality can compound that contraction, as insufficient silage or less nutritious stored feed may require farms to purchase more supplementary material. Lower grass yields may leave farms with insufficient silage, while material of poorer quality can require additional bought-in feed. The response depends on the availability and cost of alternative ingredients as well as the condition of the animals. Producers cannot necessarily make up a forage deficit merely by increasing purchased feed, particularly where ration composition and rumen health restrict the available options.
The cost of that additional feed depends partly on fertiliser, fuel and other inputs, which the forum assessed alongside physical forage availability. Fertiliser costs influence decisions about the production of grass and other feed crops, while energy and fuel affect cultivation, harvesting, transport and equipment operation. Farmgate milk prices determine the revenue available to absorb those costs. The relationship between milk income and feeding expenses is therefore relevant to decisions about output and herd size, although the consequences will differ between farms with different land, feed and purchasing arrangements.
Livestock health adds uncertainty to those feed and herd decisions, with bluetongue virus serotype 3 affecting production and replacement planning in exposed areas. Its effects on livestock health and reproduction may alter production and replacement planning, while vaccination decisions and local disease conditions affect the risks faced by individual herds. AHDB also considered whether the summer’s heat could have longer-lasting consequences for fertility and the development of calves. Such effects may appear months after an immediate decline in milk yield and complicate the interpretation of near-term delivery figures.
At processing plants, the combined farm pressures appear in both the litres of milk received and the fat and protein available for products that use different raw material components. Cheese, butter, powders and fresh dairy products require different raw material components and equipment. Changes in supply can influence allocation decisions and production schedules, subject to contracts and capacity. A decline in total litres does not imply that every category will contract at the same rate, because milk fat, protein content and product demand also influence what can be manufactured.
Earlier manufacturing and trade figures offer a separate measure of supply conditions: AHDB calculated Q2 butter availability down 7.6% and cheese availability down 3.3%. Those figures describe earlier manufacturing and trade flows, not the new production forecast being considered in October. The forum’s discussion is therefore a related but different development: it examines upstream factors that could affect later milk deliveries, whereas the product availability data measure a completed quarter. Keeping the periods and calculations separate prevents an earlier market result being presented as a new prediction.
International disruptions may also alter energy, fertiliser and feed prices, affecting the production costs considered in AHDB’s October assessment. Changes in fuel, fertiliser and feed markets can reach farms through input prices and availability, while export demand can affect dairy processing returns. There is no single forecast adjustment that can be attributed to any one of these factors before AHDB publishes its updated figures. The final result will depend on the interaction of herd numbers, feed supplies, disease conditions and milk pricing over the coming months.
AHDB’s revised 2026/27 production forecast, expected later in October, will provide the next quantified indication of how these risks affect the milk outlook. Until then the forum identifies a set of pressures, not a quantified new contraction. Subsequent milk delivery data will provide evidence of whether output has continued to decline and how rapidly any recovery in forage supply or livestock conditions may influence farm production. Processors will need those measurements when assessing the volumes of raw milk available for different manufacturing operations.
